Dead Brexit Or Hard Brexit Will Be A FTSE Buy Signal
(Source: forbes.com)

clicks | 7 days ago | Google AI sentiment 0.30 | comments: discuss | tags: cryptocurrency


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(Original link: forbes.com)

The UK hasn’t been in such a pickle since the 1950s when the government tried to grab back the Suez Canal from Egypt, who had just nationalised it and taken it back under their sovereignty. It didn’t end well for the UK or for the then government. This is the kind of shambles the UK finds itself in now, due to a lack of guts to see things through and probably a lack of vision, capacity or desire to understand the strategic stakes.
There are 3 options:
1 Kill Brexit. Retract article 50
This is the one 75% of the folks in government, both elected and employed want but haven’t the backbone to dictate.
2 Delay Brexit
This option is just to kick the can down the road so they can kill it later. From the perspective of a political jellyfish this is the way to go.
3 Sign up to an unpalatable deal
It’s unpalatable for Remainers who want to kill all Brexits and Leavers who want to leave and not be held in silent tutelage.
Have an excruciatingly hard Brexit There are only a few days left to 29 March when the UK defaults to a Hard Brexit.
The reason those elected officials in power don’t want to Kill Brexit out in the open is that they are pretty sure that enough of the 50% of their voters who voted to Brexit will not vote for them in the next general election and they will be out on their ear. So the lawmakers must Kill Brexit and be able to plausibly say, “it wasn’t me, I didn’t do it.”
So that dominant power block can only kick the can… To kick the can they must ask the EU to let them extend the Article 50 exit period. Otherwise next month the UK is out of the EU by default.
Few are saying the EU will say “Non, Nein…etc.” It will only take one of the countries of the 27 to say “no” and there can be no extension. Just one awkward country out of 27. Amusingly “no” is “no” in Spanish and they know that in Gibraltar, that quirky little UK territorial swelling poking out of the bottom of Spain.
Few in parliament are saying “Kill article 50” so that is unlikely to happen in a few short days and if the UK requests an extension what is Europe going to say?
There is a good chance they will say “I’ll go back to all the countries and ask… oh dearie me this is proving tricky… oops out of time …. Retract article 50 or byeeee….. no? … huh OK … bye.”
Why would the EU want a non-aligned UK in the EU, with half of its population set dead against them? Why would the EU want to set the precedence that you can muck them around and not suffer a terrible punishment?
As such, with Option 1 is off the table, Option 3 has been thrown off the table twice already. It leaves extension to article 50 and Hard Brexit as the main choices. It is down to the EU if an extension, either short or long, is possible. This is the landmine that the UK is about to step around.
If the EU don’t extend and the UK parliament doesn’t panic and retract article 50 (very low chance) or sign May’s deal (low chance), then it’s a coin flip between extension and Hard Brexit.
It’s a pretty wild 50/50 and my guess/call is a ‘non to an extension.’ (But it’s 50/50)
But let’s forget the politics, what about money?
Hard Brexit should mean a dump on the FTSE. I will buy that slump with both hands.
If they kill Brexit or continue to grind it to dust the market will rally anyway.
April will be the time to go long the UK market.
Clem Chambers is the CEO of leading private investors Web site ADVFN.com and author of Be Rich , The Game in Wall Street and Trading Cryptocurrencies: A Beginner’s Guide , out now in paperback and on the Kindle. In November 2018, Clem won Journalist of the Year in the Business Market Commentary category in the State Street UK Institutional Press Awards. The awards recognise outstanding performance in institutional financial services reporting in the UK....

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